“CURSES!” The phrase that is frequently used whenever disasters or bad luck befalls us. Indeed, the term “curse” has been around for centuries and has had an impact on our daily lives because it can literally be about anything—numbers, locations, or a specific time period. They have been passed down from generation to generation, depending on how we were raised by our parents, the influence of movies we have watched, or even real-life tragedies. Friday the 13th, for example, is said to be a cursed day that was inspired by a movie. Furthermore, the year 2020 is said to be cursed because the entire world suffered from the COVID-19 pandemic.

For the Russians however, the month of August is said to be deadly due to the many tragedies and deaths that have occurred in that month. But why just that one month? Accidents can happen anytime. Is this truly a curse, or just mere coincidence?

The August curse is a phenomenon in Russia where disasters and unfavourable occasions happen more frequently than in other months. This phenomenon has been prevalent from 1991 to 2001. People have come up with numerous names for this curse: deadliest month, black August, month of the dramatic, cruellest month, Russia’s sleepy month and month of misery. As previously stated, Russians claim that such disasters were only rampant from 1991 to 2001. But as the years pass, they continue to keep track of the tragedies which unfortunately, continue to occur to this very day. There have been a few major disasters that have taken a toll on the Russians.

The beginning of the tragedy was the attempted coup in 1991, where fanatic Soviet officials attempted to seize power from the president despite Gorbachev’s reforms and the approaching destruction of the Union of Soviet Socialist Republic (USSR). Following several standoffs between the military and the people, the conspirators relented. In an ironic twist, their actions may have accelerated or exacerbated the collapse of what remained of the USSR.

Following another case in August 1998, Russia suffered a series of economic crises. The government went into default on its domestic debt and postponed paying off its foreign debt. The Russian currency—the ruble—lost two-thirds of its value as a result of the crisis, and inflation reached 84 per cent.

The next tragedy is the sinking of the Kursk Submarine in 2000. Kursk (“Курск“) was a submarine named after a city in Russia. The submarine was participating in a military exercise in the Barents Sea on 12 August 2000 when it stopped responding to incoming communications. Even though the rescue operation lasted several days, all 118 people aboard died. The official investigation determined that the submarine sank as a result of a torpedo explosion and subsequent fire. Russian authorities initially refused foreign assistance in responding to the incident, and President Putin was chastised for his handling of the catastrophe.

When it comes to August disasters, 2019 was no exception. On 8 August, a high radiation level was detected in the northwestern Arkhangelsk region. This was attributed to the Arkhangelsk Explosion, which occurred at the Nyonoksa military base. The exact type of missile is debatable. The situation was shrouded in secrecy, with medical personnel not being informed that they were treating radiation-affected patients, drawing comparisons to the Chernobyl nuclear disaster.

Numerous explanations for the August Curse have been proposed based on the events described, ranging from factual to supernatural. As Russia experiences scorching temperatures in August, many people take vacations, thereby creating a power vacuum at some levels that terrorists and criminals can exploit. According to Trust Bank’s chief economist, Yevgeny Nadorshin, the occurrence in August is simply a coincidence for many events. However, Nadorshin pointed out that vacations and official inattention played a significant role in enabling the 2009 Nazran bombing. Some speculate that security staff may have taken some time off for vacation, leaving only a few to secure the area.

This hot August weather was also identified as a contributing factor to the Curse in 2001. It is a period in which military or insurgent actions can be done. Others have proposed supernatural explanations for the curse of August. According to astrologer Yelena Kuznetsova, the chaos will probably continue until mid-September due to the relative positions of Saturn and Uranus, and Russia’s horoscope is directly related to the annual August disturbance.

Not only does the hot weather have an impact on security management, but on humans too. There are numerous theories about this, some of which are supported by scientific evidence; others, however, have no proof. Solar activity and radiation are said to be very intense in August. According to some scientists, this can influence people’s moods and behaviours. People, particularly residents of Moscow, get tired of work, and the negative energy of those who can’t enjoy their vacations ultimately contribute to the occurence of negative events. Furthermore, the weather is constantly changing. In recent years, the global temperature rise has begun to affect Russia.

To this day, the Russians believe that the month of August is cursed because of the social and psychological effects of the tragedies that have befallen this country. However, based on the facts discussed previously, some people believe that these tragedies are merely a coincidence caused by the climate that has brought about negative influences in society. This leads to tragedies which are still perceived as bad luck. The August crisis should direct our attention and the Russian government’s efforts to the difficult issue of defence reform, because Russia cannot have security, prosperity, or democracy without it. Be it a curse or not, tragedy is unavoidable and there is nothing we can do but remain vigilant and mourn for those who have perished. But again, isn’t it possible that this is all a huge coincidence? Or is the curse real? Let’s hope that August 2021 will not contain another huge tragedy for the Russians.